Saturday, March 01, 2008
Headin' to NashVegas
Rarely do the activities of the Republican State Executive Committee make news. I thought that they might with Saturday's meeting, as elected SEC members will be settling the race for National Committeeman and National Committeewoman. If there's more than one announced candidate for National Committeewoman, I don't know about it. There is certainly an interesting race for National Committeeman, though, as incumbent Van Hilleary is being challenged by Shelby County SEC member John Ryder. From the several SEC members to whom I have spoken, I expect a close race. Ryder started campaigning early, and Van has come on as of late. I wouldn't be too surprised if this race comes down to a couple of votes either way.
There is also speculation that there may be staff changes due to the recent Obama flap that caused John McCain to notice that Tennessee still exists. I wouldn't hold your breath. Short of Bill Hobbs just saying that he didn't want this kind of grief anymore and resigning, I wouldn't expect any changes. I highly doubt that would be Hobbs' reaction, because I know how badly he wanted this position with the Tennessee GOP. Plus, while the press release was a bit strong, it obviously wasn't that strong because no one reacted for several days afterwards. If anything, this whole mess is the product of a news cycle that was vacant (partly due to no major primaries this week) and needed some space filler.
Here's my prediction: I bet that as Leo and myself make our way around the various meetings and hobnob with the usual suspects that no one mentions the desire to have Robin Smith, Bill Hobbs, or any of the other party officers or staff resign.
I'll try to report on any interesting occurrences (as well as post on last weekend's Jefferson County Lincoln Day - I know that I'm behind, folks) when we return from Nashville.
Other people talking about the SEC meeting:
Katie Allison Granju
Ken Whitehouse (Note: I have spoken with several big-time GOP officeholders and donors - none of whom say they were the ones referenced by Whitehouse - who found Whitehouse's claims of dissension to be humorous.)
John Rodgers
Sean Braisted
Liz Garrigan
Music City Bloggers
There is also speculation that there may be staff changes due to the recent Obama flap that caused John McCain to notice that Tennessee still exists. I wouldn't hold your breath. Short of Bill Hobbs just saying that he didn't want this kind of grief anymore and resigning, I wouldn't expect any changes. I highly doubt that would be Hobbs' reaction, because I know how badly he wanted this position with the Tennessee GOP. Plus, while the press release was a bit strong, it obviously wasn't that strong because no one reacted for several days afterwards. If anything, this whole mess is the product of a news cycle that was vacant (partly due to no major primaries this week) and needed some space filler.
Here's my prediction: I bet that as Leo and myself make our way around the various meetings and hobnob with the usual suspects that no one mentions the desire to have Robin Smith, Bill Hobbs, or any of the other party officers or staff resign.
I'll try to report on any interesting occurrences (as well as post on last weekend's Jefferson County Lincoln Day - I know that I'm behind, folks) when we return from Nashville.
Other people talking about the SEC meeting:
Katie Allison Granju
Ken Whitehouse (Note: I have spoken with several big-time GOP officeholders and donors - none of whom say they were the ones referenced by Whitehouse - who found Whitehouse's claims of dissension to be humorous.)
John Rodgers
Sean Braisted
Liz Garrigan
Music City Bloggers
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary, State Executive Committee, TN GOP
Friday, February 08, 2008
The Exit of Mitt Romney
I've been stuck in court for most of this week (save Tuesday, when I blogged like mad), and that includes all but 25 minutes of Thursday's workday. In those 25 minutes, though, I was able to listen to Mitt Romney's speech at CPAC. I had heard the scuttlebutt that it was going to be his swan song, which was reason enough to listen, so I tuned in to Andrew Wilkow's radio show on Sirius Patriot radio.
Half-way though the speech, my question was: who was this man and what had he done with Mitt Romney? The speech was blistering where it needed to be, inspirational where it needed to be, and touched on issues that conservatives care about. It was incredible, and unfortunately should have been delivered in the summer of 2007.
As the speech continued, it sure didn't sound like Mitt was getting out. It sounded like Mitt was renewed, ready to fight on. Wilkow broke in and said, "It doesn't sound like Romney is getting out with this speech." I concurred. Romney went on about the importance of parental responsibility, how fathers needed to be fathers to help raise the next generation of Americans. He spoke about the economy, about how unions were the real culprit for the downturn in the American economy.
It was at this point that I became a Romney supporter. If this Mitt Romney had been around earlier in the campaign, I might have been there then. I was ready to write my check to the Romney campaign. Seriously. Those who know me know that 1) I'm not apt to give in to hyperbole, 2) I don't tend to switch from candidate to candidate, even in the longest of campaigns, and 3) I rarely give money to political campaigns. Taking that into account, you should be able to gage where I thought this speech rated.
Several times during this campaign, I have been urging for the candidates to inspire me. I've said that if one of John McCain's speeches inspires you, you probably are inspired by Baby Einstein videos and those 3-D pictures that were so popular in 90's. Seriously. John McCain couldn't inspire me to get off the couch and make a chicken salad sandwich.
But here I was Thursday in the parking lot of the Blount County Justice Center listening to Mitt Romney speak at CPAC - and I was moved. I was inspired. I was willing to write off the previous positions he had taken while running against Kennedy. I was willing to overlook his horrible attempt at socialized healthcare while Governor of Massachusetts. I was willing to believe that he would work with the NRA to protect our right to keep and bear arms. I was willing to align myself with Mitt Romney.
But then...
Wilkow and I were wrong. Mitt quit. Well, in retrospect, Mitt positioned himself with the inside track for 2012. He maintains political viability as he goes out on a beautiful high note. This speech will be long remembered - not the meager victories in Alaska, North Dakota, Utah, and the like.
I know I will remember it. It was the best address I have heard since Ronald Reagan left the White House. One tends to remember such things.
MORE: Wes Comer's comments mirror my own - plus he has the text of Mitt's speech. Bob Krumm, who supported Romney after Fred Thompson left the field, apparently liked Mitt's speech, as well, but believes that we need to unite behind McCain. (It should be noted that Bob wouldn't mind the GOP's support in a future campaign, whereas I realize that I probably won't receive that support because I'm not really a party guy - especially if that party sells out its values for the sake of being competitive in one election cycle. This isn't a slam on Bob at all, mind you, as he's probably making the smarter choice.) Mark Hemmingway at NRO loved it, as did Adam Yoshida, who thought that Mitt showed the qualities of a strong VP.
Half-way though the speech, my question was: who was this man and what had he done with Mitt Romney? The speech was blistering where it needed to be, inspirational where it needed to be, and touched on issues that conservatives care about. It was incredible, and unfortunately should have been delivered in the summer of 2007.
As the speech continued, it sure didn't sound like Mitt was getting out. It sounded like Mitt was renewed, ready to fight on. Wilkow broke in and said, "It doesn't sound like Romney is getting out with this speech." I concurred. Romney went on about the importance of parental responsibility, how fathers needed to be fathers to help raise the next generation of Americans. He spoke about the economy, about how unions were the real culprit for the downturn in the American economy.
It was at this point that I became a Romney supporter. If this Mitt Romney had been around earlier in the campaign, I might have been there then. I was ready to write my check to the Romney campaign. Seriously. Those who know me know that 1) I'm not apt to give in to hyperbole, 2) I don't tend to switch from candidate to candidate, even in the longest of campaigns, and 3) I rarely give money to political campaigns. Taking that into account, you should be able to gage where I thought this speech rated.
Several times during this campaign, I have been urging for the candidates to inspire me. I've said that if one of John McCain's speeches inspires you, you probably are inspired by Baby Einstein videos and those 3-D pictures that were so popular in 90's. Seriously. John McCain couldn't inspire me to get off the couch and make a chicken salad sandwich.
But here I was Thursday in the parking lot of the Blount County Justice Center listening to Mitt Romney speak at CPAC - and I was moved. I was inspired. I was willing to write off the previous positions he had taken while running against Kennedy. I was willing to overlook his horrible attempt at socialized healthcare while Governor of Massachusetts. I was willing to believe that he would work with the NRA to protect our right to keep and bear arms. I was willing to align myself with Mitt Romney.
But then...
Wilkow and I were wrong. Mitt quit. Well, in retrospect, Mitt positioned himself with the inside track for 2012. He maintains political viability as he goes out on a beautiful high note. This speech will be long remembered - not the meager victories in Alaska, North Dakota, Utah, and the like.
I know I will remember it. It was the best address I have heard since Ronald Reagan left the White House. One tends to remember such things.
MORE: Wes Comer's comments mirror my own - plus he has the text of Mitt's speech. Bob Krumm, who supported Romney after Fred Thompson left the field, apparently liked Mitt's speech, as well, but believes that we need to unite behind McCain. (It should be noted that Bob wouldn't mind the GOP's support in a future campaign, whereas I realize that I probably won't receive that support because I'm not really a party guy - especially if that party sells out its values for the sake of being competitive in one election cycle. This isn't a slam on Bob at all, mind you, as he's probably making the smarter choice.) Mark Hemmingway at NRO loved it, as did Adam Yoshida, who thought that Mitt showed the qualities of a strong VP.
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Super Tuesday Reactions
Some random thoughts on yesterday's voting:
- It's the day after Super Tuesday. McCain has opened up a margin on Romney, but there is one little problem. McCain's broke. Huckabee's broke. Romney has the money but is only winning smaller states. Iraq's not a quagmire; the battle for the Republican nomination is a quagmire.
- Anyone else think that Rush Limbaugh's effective endorsement of Mitt Romney came a bit late yesterday? Rush, if you want your opinion to have some impact on this election, how about letting that little gem fly, I don't know, last week? It isn't like you don't have the soapbox...
- Obama dominated Super Tuesday in both media coverage and in number of states won. However, it's the delegates that count, and Hillary did well there. With her huge lead in these corrupt superdelegates and by winning the populous states of California and New York, Clinton more than made up for Obama's wins. It's the delegates that matter, and right now, Hillary has more of them. I can't see this Democratic race not being extended into April, when Pennsylvania votes.
- I've been outspoken in letting the GOP know that they are facing a monumental defeat come November if Obama is the candidate. Some of the numbers yesterday bear that out, as the number of Democrats voting in the primaries is impossible to ignore. Out of the 19 states that voted yesterday in which both parties held their elections, the Democrats had a better turnout in 16 of the 19 states, including several in the supposed GOP stronghold of the South. I still think the GOP may have a chance if the divisive Senator from New York is the nominee, but yesterday's numbers - combined with early turnouts in South Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire - spell doom for the GOP come November. One has to wonder when the powers-that-be in the RNC start to realize that it behooves them to pull resources from the presidential campaign and start concentrating on holding 40 seats in the Senate.
Labels: 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary, 2008 GOP Presidential Primary
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
February 2008 Knox County Election Guide
(In response to public request, I am bringing this post to the top of the page until the polls close.)
First, a few ground rules. I'm not listing uncontested races, and I'm not listing every race. The primary (pun intended) factors regarding endorsements are conservative philosophies and ethics. Ethics can be interpreted in many ways, and one of those ways is lack of ties to the corrupt people recently in office, currently in office, or in some way being related to Tim Hutchison.
After discussing the candidates and viewing their various backgrounds, here are the VOLuntarilyConservative endorsements for tomorrow's primaries:
GOP Nominee for President of the United States: Fred Thompson
Many people say that a vote for Fred, the only real conservative to have run for this office in 2008, is throwing your vote away. My view is that I will do whatever I can to get Fred on the ballot, including a spot as the Vice Presidential nominee. Fred would obviously not be McCain's choice, as the age factor comes into play and McCain has likely dealt that card to Huckaphony. Several people "in the know" keep telling me that Fred is Romney's #1 pick as VP. If that is the case, I can't fault a vote for Romney here, no matter how repugnant I may view some of his acts as Governor of Massachusetts. Of course, even taking those views into consideration, Romney is still miles more conservative than McCain and Huckaphony.
County Clerk: Foster Arnett, Jr.
This is a real no-brainer in my opinion. While Mike McMillan and Bryan Bates are also in the race technically, this is a match-up of Arnett and Knox County Commission Chairman Scott Moore. Given that there is probably no one more at fault for the entire debacle in Knox County than Moore, it's impossible to see how Moore wins here - unless Arnett, McMillan, and Bates divide the anti-incumbent forces to the point that Moore cruises on name recognition. And this is exactly what Moore is counting on.
How do I know this? Because a fellow conservative who holds elective office approached me last July as a surrogate for Scott Moore. This person, whom I counted as a friend, asked if I would run for County Clerk and attack Foster Arnett, with the idea being that Scott Moore would cruise to victory as the mudslinging got ugly between us. Moore would then coerce those in power to appoint me to take his place on the Knox County Commission, as I had just moved into his 7th District, as a form of quid pro quo.
I wasn't surprised that Moore was looking to finagle his way into the financially lucrative Clerk's position, but I was shocked that a conservative friend would think that I would have such low morals as to take part in such an act. I attempted to talk to GOP Chairwoman Robin Smith about these shenanigans, but we weren't able to touch base. I suppose that it is fair to say that I had to reassess my political involvements after that proposal, because I was astonished that anyone would perceive me that way. Sure I like to win, but I would rather lose than win dishonestly. If that's a fault, then so be it.
Regarding Foster Arnett, he has worked hard in the past several months to reacquaint Knox County with himself. Arnett is well-known in the community, and it appears that he will do all he can to put a trusting face on the County Clerk's office.
(See UPDATE at the end of this post.)
Property Assessor: Phil Ballard
This race may be the most vicious of the Knox County races, with former Trustee Mike Lowe battling current Commissioner Phil Ballard. I want to saw that this is a weak endorsement, as I know from certain inside sources that one of the chief architects that led to the appointment of the immensely unqualified Tim Greene as a "Black Wednesday" appointment for the 9th District County Commission seat was none other than Phil Ballard. However, he appears to be a better choice than Lowe. It should be noted that Ballard is endorsed by Rep. Parkey Strader, as well, another noted Knox County conservative.
Trustee: No Endorsement
I can make cases for Roger Kane, Steve Hill, and Steve Rogers, which probably plays into the hands of Fred Sisk, who was the recipient of one of the illegal appointments on "Black Wednesday." I will probably vote for Kane, but, as I wrote above, I can make a good case for Hill and Rogers, too.
Law Director: John Owings
This endorsement certainly doesn't take anything away from Bill Lockett, Owings' opponent. Lockett is a good and decent attorney, much like Owings. However, this is a case where I just don't see why Owings should be ousted. He defended the likes of Moore, Lambert, and Pinkston against the Sunshine Law violations - not because he wanted to, but because it was his job to do so. I know how that feels, folks, because I've defended rapists, deadbeat dads, and the like because someone has to do it under the Constitution.
Owings rose to this position when his predecessor, Mike Moyers, was elected as Knox County Chancellor, so there certainly isn't the obvious taint that so many of the other races have. I guess one of the good things about having so many lawyers in Knox County is that we have good candidates for attorney-type political positions every election cycle.
County Commission Seat 4A - Ruthie Kuhlman
In a race where a good deal of the attention has been paid to Richard Cate - a former illegal appointee - and William Daniels, whom I have spoken with and appears to be quite a good candidate in his own right, it appears that Ruthie Stone Kuhlman is the best choice. Kuhlman seems to be a classical conservative, favoring a smaller, more efficient government, which Knox County sorely needs.
County Commission Seat 4B - Ed Shouse
You have to admire Ed Shouse, a former Knoxville City Councilman, who has taken the fight to Lee Tramel, a former illegal appointee and one of Tim Hutchison's well-funded employees in the Sheriff's Department. No one is Shouse's family works for Knox County, which already gives him a boost over Tramel.
County Commission Seat 5C - No Endorsement
There are three good candidates for this seat - Thomas Baer (a nuclear engineer and Navy vet), Richard Briggs (a medical doctor and combat vet), and Jim McEvers (who has a master's degree in engineering and has worked on nuclear projects around the world). Picking between the three is tough, but it sure looks like the 5th District is going to bring some much needed intelligence to the County Commission if one of these three is elected.
County Commission Seat 6A and 8B - No Endorsement
Too many good candidates for the 6A seat and not enough for the 8B seat. I probably lean towards Brad Anders for 6A, as he is a trained crisis negotiator for the City of Knoxville, and Lord knows that previous editions of the County Commission could have used one of those. The 8B race has been ugly all the way around, with allegations flying regarding candidates' backgrounds (Porter and Wright) and possible improper leave from a county job to campaign (Frazier). Ugh.
County Commission Seat 9A - Mike Brown
This was probably one of the easiest choices on the ballot. Tim Greene - Brown's opponent and one of the illegal appointees - should never have been considered for appointment, having never met with the voters of the 9th District prior to being appointed. Greene never produced a resume, never made a public appearance - yet was picked by Paul Pinkston's hand-picked selection committee. The good news for voters in South Knox County is that all signs point to you having honest representation in the form of Mike Brown in the near future. The bad news is that you still have Paul Pinkston. It can't always be good news, folks...
That's pretty much it for the Knox County ballot. While I will cast my vote for State Senator Jamie Woodson, I certainly won't be voting for Rep. Tim Burchett as a delegate for the Republican National Convention. After all, Burchett has proven that he has trouble voting for Republicans. It sure would embarrass us Tennesseans if he ended up pledging a delegate for Hillary Clinton in Minneapolis, now wouldn't it?
UPDATE (2/5/08 8:06 A.M.) - A few e-mails have inquired as to how I knew that the conservative friend who approached me regarding running for County Clerk was actually doing so at the behest of Scott Moore. The truth is that I don't have any solid proof, only that the person told me that Scott Moore had sanctioned the move. I believed this person. You can make up your own mind as to whether the offer was legitimate or not. I obviously have.
First, a few ground rules. I'm not listing uncontested races, and I'm not listing every race. The primary (pun intended) factors regarding endorsements are conservative philosophies and ethics. Ethics can be interpreted in many ways, and one of those ways is lack of ties to the corrupt people recently in office, currently in office, or in some way being related to Tim Hutchison.
After discussing the candidates and viewing their various backgrounds, here are the VOLuntarilyConservative endorsements for tomorrow's primaries:
GOP Nominee for President of the United States: Fred Thompson
Many people say that a vote for Fred, the only real conservative to have run for this office in 2008, is throwing your vote away. My view is that I will do whatever I can to get Fred on the ballot, including a spot as the Vice Presidential nominee. Fred would obviously not be McCain's choice, as the age factor comes into play and McCain has likely dealt that card to Huckaphony. Several people "in the know" keep telling me that Fred is Romney's #1 pick as VP. If that is the case, I can't fault a vote for Romney here, no matter how repugnant I may view some of his acts as Governor of Massachusetts. Of course, even taking those views into consideration, Romney is still miles more conservative than McCain and Huckaphony.
County Clerk: Foster Arnett, Jr.
This is a real no-brainer in my opinion. While Mike McMillan and Bryan Bates are also in the race technically, this is a match-up of Arnett and Knox County Commission Chairman Scott Moore. Given that there is probably no one more at fault for the entire debacle in Knox County than Moore, it's impossible to see how Moore wins here - unless Arnett, McMillan, and Bates divide the anti-incumbent forces to the point that Moore cruises on name recognition. And this is exactly what Moore is counting on.
How do I know this? Because a fellow conservative who holds elective office approached me last July as a surrogate for Scott Moore. This person, whom I counted as a friend, asked if I would run for County Clerk and attack Foster Arnett, with the idea being that Scott Moore would cruise to victory as the mudslinging got ugly between us. Moore would then coerce those in power to appoint me to take his place on the Knox County Commission, as I had just moved into his 7th District, as a form of quid pro quo.
I wasn't surprised that Moore was looking to finagle his way into the financially lucrative Clerk's position, but I was shocked that a conservative friend would think that I would have such low morals as to take part in such an act. I attempted to talk to GOP Chairwoman Robin Smith about these shenanigans, but we weren't able to touch base. I suppose that it is fair to say that I had to reassess my political involvements after that proposal, because I was astonished that anyone would perceive me that way. Sure I like to win, but I would rather lose than win dishonestly. If that's a fault, then so be it.
Regarding Foster Arnett, he has worked hard in the past several months to reacquaint Knox County with himself. Arnett is well-known in the community, and it appears that he will do all he can to put a trusting face on the County Clerk's office.
(See UPDATE at the end of this post.)
Property Assessor: Phil Ballard
This race may be the most vicious of the Knox County races, with former Trustee Mike Lowe battling current Commissioner Phil Ballard. I want to saw that this is a weak endorsement, as I know from certain inside sources that one of the chief architects that led to the appointment of the immensely unqualified Tim Greene as a "Black Wednesday" appointment for the 9th District County Commission seat was none other than Phil Ballard. However, he appears to be a better choice than Lowe. It should be noted that Ballard is endorsed by Rep. Parkey Strader, as well, another noted Knox County conservative.
Trustee: No Endorsement
I can make cases for Roger Kane, Steve Hill, and Steve Rogers, which probably plays into the hands of Fred Sisk, who was the recipient of one of the illegal appointments on "Black Wednesday." I will probably vote for Kane, but, as I wrote above, I can make a good case for Hill and Rogers, too.
Law Director: John Owings
This endorsement certainly doesn't take anything away from Bill Lockett, Owings' opponent. Lockett is a good and decent attorney, much like Owings. However, this is a case where I just don't see why Owings should be ousted. He defended the likes of Moore, Lambert, and Pinkston against the Sunshine Law violations - not because he wanted to, but because it was his job to do so. I know how that feels, folks, because I've defended rapists, deadbeat dads, and the like because someone has to do it under the Constitution.
Owings rose to this position when his predecessor, Mike Moyers, was elected as Knox County Chancellor, so there certainly isn't the obvious taint that so many of the other races have. I guess one of the good things about having so many lawyers in Knox County is that we have good candidates for attorney-type political positions every election cycle.
County Commission Seat 4A - Ruthie Kuhlman
In a race where a good deal of the attention has been paid to Richard Cate - a former illegal appointee - and William Daniels, whom I have spoken with and appears to be quite a good candidate in his own right, it appears that Ruthie Stone Kuhlman is the best choice. Kuhlman seems to be a classical conservative, favoring a smaller, more efficient government, which Knox County sorely needs.
County Commission Seat 4B - Ed Shouse
You have to admire Ed Shouse, a former Knoxville City Councilman, who has taken the fight to Lee Tramel, a former illegal appointee and one of Tim Hutchison's well-funded employees in the Sheriff's Department. No one is Shouse's family works for Knox County, which already gives him a boost over Tramel.
County Commission Seat 5C - No Endorsement
There are three good candidates for this seat - Thomas Baer (a nuclear engineer and Navy vet), Richard Briggs (a medical doctor and combat vet), and Jim McEvers (who has a master's degree in engineering and has worked on nuclear projects around the world). Picking between the three is tough, but it sure looks like the 5th District is going to bring some much needed intelligence to the County Commission if one of these three is elected.
County Commission Seat 6A and 8B - No Endorsement
Too many good candidates for the 6A seat and not enough for the 8B seat. I probably lean towards Brad Anders for 6A, as he is a trained crisis negotiator for the City of Knoxville, and Lord knows that previous editions of the County Commission could have used one of those. The 8B race has been ugly all the way around, with allegations flying regarding candidates' backgrounds (Porter and Wright) and possible improper leave from a county job to campaign (Frazier). Ugh.
County Commission Seat 9A - Mike Brown
This was probably one of the easiest choices on the ballot. Tim Greene - Brown's opponent and one of the illegal appointees - should never have been considered for appointment, having never met with the voters of the 9th District prior to being appointed. Greene never produced a resume, never made a public appearance - yet was picked by Paul Pinkston's hand-picked selection committee. The good news for voters in South Knox County is that all signs point to you having honest representation in the form of Mike Brown in the near future. The bad news is that you still have Paul Pinkston. It can't always be good news, folks...
That's pretty much it for the Knox County ballot. While I will cast my vote for State Senator Jamie Woodson, I certainly won't be voting for Rep. Tim Burchett as a delegate for the Republican National Convention. After all, Burchett has proven that he has trouble voting for Republicans. It sure would embarrass us Tennesseans if he ended up pledging a delegate for Hillary Clinton in Minneapolis, now wouldn't it?
UPDATE (2/5/08 8:06 A.M.) - A few e-mails have inquired as to how I knew that the conservative friend who approached me regarding running for County Clerk was actually doing so at the behest of Scott Moore. The truth is that I don't have any solid proof, only that the person told me that Scott Moore had sanctioned the move. I believed this person. You can make up your own mind as to whether the offer was legitimate or not. I obviously have.
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary, Knox County Politics
McCain/Huckabee Screw Romney in West Virginia
The headlines will say that Mike Huckabee has won the first state of Super Tuesday, West Virginia.
As in many cases, how we got to that result is the real story.
Keep in mind that West Virginia uses the convention method to select their winner. (Think of it as one big caucus.) Joe Schmo voter isn't there; party activists are the primetime players.
In a preliminary vote, Romney was out in front by a good margin, and McCain was bringing up the rear. McCain's strategists got together and decided to allign themselves with Huckabee's supporters. When the vote was taken that counted, McCain's people voted for Huckabee. This gave Huckabee just enough to beat Romney by a margin of 52% to 47%.
I suppose it's a moral victory for Romney to garner 47% of the votes on his lonesome compared with the 52% for the remaining 2 candidates. However, no delegates are rewarded for moral victories in winner-take-all states like West Virginia. Huck gets all 18 delegates.
A few people like Roger Abramson think that McCain/Huckabee as a ticket just isn't going to happen. I happen to be one of those conspiracy theorists that believes in a deal already struck. Huckabee will stay in and syphon off votes from Romney until the outcome is foregone. To do that, he needs a reward from McCain, and I doubt that we're talking about some Cabinet post.
Ah, democracy at its finest!
Romney shouldn't be surprised, though. McCain has more than a little history of screwing Republicans.
UPDATE (4:21 P.M.): A.C. has a link to LewRockwell.com that adds to the story. Apparently, Ron Paul operatives are as sleazy as John McCain operatives.
As in many cases, how we got to that result is the real story.
Keep in mind that West Virginia uses the convention method to select their winner. (Think of it as one big caucus.) Joe Schmo voter isn't there; party activists are the primetime players.
In a preliminary vote, Romney was out in front by a good margin, and McCain was bringing up the rear. McCain's strategists got together and decided to allign themselves with Huckabee's supporters. When the vote was taken that counted, McCain's people voted for Huckabee. This gave Huckabee just enough to beat Romney by a margin of 52% to 47%.
I suppose it's a moral victory for Romney to garner 47% of the votes on his lonesome compared with the 52% for the remaining 2 candidates. However, no delegates are rewarded for moral victories in winner-take-all states like West Virginia. Huck gets all 18 delegates.
A few people like Roger Abramson think that McCain/Huckabee as a ticket just isn't going to happen. I happen to be one of those conspiracy theorists that believes in a deal already struck. Huckabee will stay in and syphon off votes from Romney until the outcome is foregone. To do that, he needs a reward from McCain, and I doubt that we're talking about some Cabinet post.
Ah, democracy at its finest!
Romney shouldn't be surprised, though. McCain has more than a little history of screwing Republicans.
UPDATE (4:21 P.M.): A.C. has a link to LewRockwell.com that adds to the story. Apparently, Ron Paul operatives are as sleazy as John McCain operatives.
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary
Thursday, January 31, 2008
California GOP Debate
There really wasn't much going down in California last night with the debate. Romney (rightfully) called out McCain on the lies that he told regarding Romney wanting a specific timetable for withdrawal in Iraq. (As one who isn't supporting either candidate, I looked over Romney's remarks - he never called for such a timetable. The campaign tactics, however, shouldn't be a surprise. McCain lied through his teeth in the 2000 campaign against Bush, which is why I didn't support McCain because his lies were so blatant, and has proceeded to bear false witness while in the Senate.) That was about the only headline.
News has now broke that the establishment candidate will pick up another endorsement from Governor Schwarzenegger today. The establishment has truly rallied around their RINO.
It's ironic that the debate last night was held in the Reagan Library, because the Republican establishment has turned its back on Reagan conservatism and this general election is going to have Reagan-like results. Only it won't be the Republicans who are celebrating. If the Democrats wise-up and nominate Obama - or just anyone instead of Clinton - then we're talking Mondale numbers, folks.
Mondale.
(So you don't have to look it up, Mondale received 40.6% of the vote.)
News has now broke that the establishment candidate will pick up another endorsement from Governor Schwarzenegger today. The establishment has truly rallied around their RINO.
It's ironic that the debate last night was held in the Reagan Library, because the Republican establishment has turned its back on Reagan conservatism and this general election is going to have Reagan-like results. Only it won't be the Republicans who are celebrating. If the Democrats wise-up and nominate Obama - or just anyone instead of Clinton - then we're talking Mondale numbers, folks.
Mondale.
(So you don't have to look it up, Mondale received 40.6% of the vote.)
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Ron Paul and Ronald Reagan
OK, so I ended up getting out of court a little early, and I got a nice pick-me-up courtesy of Volunteer Voters.
This video is quite interesting. First, it is worth playing because you get some wonderful oratory by my hero, Ronald Reagan. I would play it a hundred times over just to hear him. Second, it shows some interesting confluence between the two Ron's. Third, it shows how inspirational Ron Paul can be when you put a little violin in the background. One of my main complaints with the candidates (sans Fred Thompson) is that they don't inspire me. As Fred pointed out with Huckabee and the "hate America first crowd," I want to drive headlong into oncoming traffic after hearing most of them. To me, Ron Paul has been very bland in the debates thus far. With this packaging, I don't feel that way, and I feel a bit better about him as a candidate.
What do you think? Is it all in the packaging, or is this simply a case of substance being ignored due to the lack of style that surrounds it?
MORE: After posting this, I decided to see if I could find some formal explanation for the racist rants that were in Ron Paul's newsletters. Here is what I found from a Ron Paul press release:
"The quotations in The New Republic article are not mine and do not represent what I believe or have ever believed. I have never uttered such words and denounce such small-minded thoughts.
“In fact, I have always agreed with Martin Luther King, Jr. that we should only be concerned with the content of a person’s character, not the color of their skin. As I stated on the floor of the U.S. House on April 20, 1999: ‘I rise in great respect for the courage and high ideals of Rosa Parks who stood steadfastly for the rights of individuals against unjust laws and oppressive governmental policies.’
“This story is old news and has been rehashed for over a decade. It’s once again being resurrected for obvious political reasons on the day of the New Hampshire primary.
“When I was out of Congress and practicing medicine full-time, a newsletter was published under my name that I did not edit. Several writers contributed to the product. For over a decade, I have publically taken moral responsibility for not paying closer attention to what went out under my name.”
This seems to explain quite a bit of what was lobbed at Ron Paul by the same idiots who blew the George Allen remarks out of context back in 2006. My concern with Paul in this scandal is the same as with Allen - neither campaign even came close to responding strongly and with conviction against these allegations. Paul has been painted as a racist in much the same manner as Allen, and people will forever associate the two with this label because the people who handle their campaigns were not effective in combating the allegations.
For an interesting piece on this controversy, take a look at Outside the Beltway from earlier in January.
This video is quite interesting. First, it is worth playing because you get some wonderful oratory by my hero, Ronald Reagan. I would play it a hundred times over just to hear him. Second, it shows some interesting confluence between the two Ron's. Third, it shows how inspirational Ron Paul can be when you put a little violin in the background. One of my main complaints with the candidates (sans Fred Thompson) is that they don't inspire me. As Fred pointed out with Huckabee and the "hate America first crowd," I want to drive headlong into oncoming traffic after hearing most of them. To me, Ron Paul has been very bland in the debates thus far. With this packaging, I don't feel that way, and I feel a bit better about him as a candidate.
What do you think? Is it all in the packaging, or is this simply a case of substance being ignored due to the lack of style that surrounds it?
MORE: After posting this, I decided to see if I could find some formal explanation for the racist rants that were in Ron Paul's newsletters. Here is what I found from a Ron Paul press release:
"The quotations in The New Republic article are not mine and do not represent what I believe or have ever believed. I have never uttered such words and denounce such small-minded thoughts.
“In fact, I have always agreed with Martin Luther King, Jr. that we should only be concerned with the content of a person’s character, not the color of their skin. As I stated on the floor of the U.S. House on April 20, 1999: ‘I rise in great respect for the courage and high ideals of Rosa Parks who stood steadfastly for the rights of individuals against unjust laws and oppressive governmental policies.’
“This story is old news and has been rehashed for over a decade. It’s once again being resurrected for obvious political reasons on the day of the New Hampshire primary.
“When I was out of Congress and practicing medicine full-time, a newsletter was published under my name that I did not edit. Several writers contributed to the product. For over a decade, I have publically taken moral responsibility for not paying closer attention to what went out under my name.”
This seems to explain quite a bit of what was lobbed at Ron Paul by the same idiots who blew the George Allen remarks out of context back in 2006. My concern with Paul in this scandal is the same as with Allen - neither campaign even came close to responding strongly and with conviction against these allegations. Paul has been painted as a racist in much the same manner as Allen, and people will forever associate the two with this label because the people who handle their campaigns were not effective in combating the allegations.
For an interesting piece on this controversy, take a look at Outside the Beltway from earlier in January.
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary, Ron Paul
Light Blogging
Today will be light on the blogging, folks, as I have what appears to be an all-day affair in Sevier County protecting a little five year-old girl from harm.
I'll try to post as soon as the results from Florida are known. Like Sharon Cobb, I think that only two viable candidates come out of Florida for the GOP. And the winner tonight has the advantage going into Super Tuesday.
I'm also working on a Knox County Voters Guide to be released later this week.
I'll try to post as soon as the results from Florida are known. Like Sharon Cobb, I think that only two viable candidates come out of Florida for the GOP. And the winner tonight has the advantage going into Super Tuesday.
I'm also working on a Knox County Voters Guide to be released later this week.
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary, Firm Life, Knox County Politics
Monday, January 28, 2008
Vote Early, Vote Often, and Vote for Fred
As Tennessee Senator Mark Norris and Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey have done, I join in urging all Tennessee conservatives to vote for Fred Thompson in the GOP Primary. Voting concludes next Tuesday, February 5th.
This is not a vote "thrown away," folks. Evidence presented to me over the past several weeks (as with Carl Cameron's post on the subject) leads me to believe that Fred's campaign was an accident, that the idea was to generate some support as a vehicle to having Fred on the ticket as a Vice Presidential nominee. The support was too great, Fred was brought into the race, and the rest is history.
A vote for Fred Thompson sends the message to Governor Romney and Senator McCain that Fred Thompson can bring much to the ticket. If Fred were to break 20% support after withdrawing from the race, the eventual GOP nominee would have to acknowledge that there is real promise in our former U.S. Senator.
This FredHead wants to see Thompson on the ticket - which was apparently the idea in the first place.
This is not a vote "thrown away," folks. Evidence presented to me over the past several weeks (as with Carl Cameron's post on the subject) leads me to believe that Fred's campaign was an accident, that the idea was to generate some support as a vehicle to having Fred on the ticket as a Vice Presidential nominee. The support was too great, Fred was brought into the race, and the rest is history.
A vote for Fred Thompson sends the message to Governor Romney and Senator McCain that Fred Thompson can bring much to the ticket. If Fred were to break 20% support after withdrawing from the race, the eventual GOP nominee would have to acknowledge that there is real promise in our former U.S. Senator.
This FredHead wants to see Thompson on the ticket - which was apparently the idea in the first place.
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary, Fred Thompson
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Huckster Still Using Push Polls in FL, MO
It appears that Mike Huckabee, who is hellbent on running the dirtiest campaign this side of Hillary Clinton's, is using the same lowdown tactics in Florida and Missouri as he did in South Carolina against Fred Thompson.
The preacher plays dirty, folks.
(Hat tip: Instapundit)
MORE: Nathan Moore elaborates on Huckabee's unethical - but not illegal - campaign efforts.
The preacher plays dirty, folks.
(Hat tip: Instapundit)
MORE: Nathan Moore elaborates on Huckabee's unethical - but not illegal - campaign efforts.
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary
Blackburn: Will "Probably" Support Romney
A.C. at Volunteer Voters asked yesterday who would swoop in and pick up the pieces of the Fred Thompson campaign. After all, it isn't like this is Mike Gravel or Chris Dodd's campaign here. There is some value left in those who were with Fred.
One answer that was obvious to many already seems to have come to the forefront. Rep. Marsha Blackburn told the Washington Times that she will "probably return to supporting Mitt Romney."
Not really a surprise there. I suspect that Congressman Duncan will make a similar announcement within the next few days.
The same article also quotes sources that indicate that many of Thompson's staffers might be joining up with McCain. Given the level of disorganization and vision in the Thompson campaign, that might shore things up for Romney. (Just kidding, folks.)
One answer that was obvious to many already seems to have come to the forefront. Rep. Marsha Blackburn told the Washington Times that she will "probably return to supporting Mitt Romney."
Not really a surprise there. I suspect that Congressman Duncan will make a similar announcement within the next few days.
The same article also quotes sources that indicate that many of Thompson's staffers might be joining up with McCain. Given the level of disorganization and vision in the Thompson campaign, that might shore things up for Romney. (Just kidding, folks.)
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary, Fred Thompson
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Why Fred Must Stay In the Race
I'm not one to openly gush about ads because they rarely say much. This one is different. This one really tugged at the heartstrings. It inspires me to work for Fred, and I'm certainly not the only one out there.
Isn't that what we need? Someone who inspires us? None of the Democrats are inspiring. I've said before that if John McCain inspires you, it probably says more about you than it does about McCain. The guy couldn't inspire me to get off the sofa. Romney, Huckabee, Paul, Giuliani - these guys have no shot at inspiring me to do anything but look away from our government.
This ad sums up what Fred means to this race. It shows the lies, the deceit, the scandal, and the duplicity of the other Republican candidates. It shows that America's future as the light of the free world is what is at stake here, the freedoms of your children and mine. As of this morning, there is only one conservative running for President of the United States.
I really hope that Fred sees it this morning before any decisions are made.
Hat Tip: Tennesseans for Thompson.
Isn't that what we need? Someone who inspires us? None of the Democrats are inspiring. I've said before that if John McCain inspires you, it probably says more about you than it does about McCain. The guy couldn't inspire me to get off the sofa. Romney, Huckabee, Paul, Giuliani - these guys have no shot at inspiring me to do anything but look away from our government.
This ad sums up what Fred means to this race. It shows the lies, the deceit, the scandal, and the duplicity of the other Republican candidates. It shows that America's future as the light of the free world is what is at stake here, the freedoms of your children and mine. As of this morning, there is only one conservative running for President of the United States.
I really hope that Fred sees it this morning before any decisions are made.
Hat Tip: Tennesseans for Thompson.
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary, Fred Thompson
Monday, January 21, 2008
Red State Update: Romney Wins the States Nobody Cares About, and McCain Wants to Turn Michigan Into a Parking Lot for Canada
"You really know that the bottom has fallen out of your life when you wind up in a John Edwards' speech."
Those topics and more from the Jackie and Dunlap at Red State Update:
Those topics and more from the Jackie and Dunlap at Red State Update:
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary, Videos
The Rise of the Pragmatists
Well, I've been dreading this for some time now - ever since it became obvious that Fred's campaign team wasn't up to snuff.
As we are on the verge of Fred either soldiering on to Super Tuesday (where he could pull a state or two from the ranks and hold out for a brokered convention, which, given a look on the map and depending greatly on the resolve of the particular candidates, is still a real possibility) or terminating his candidacy, the pragmatic conservatives are starting to spin this week's probable nominee as palatable to other conservatives. I'm not sure if they are trying to convince others, convince themselves, or toe the party line, but that's probably something that only each of them individually can answer.
Some people aren't so moving. Pete Fanning won't be backing one of the pseudoconservatives come election day in Wisconsin. (Hat tip: Volunteer Voters.) UCLA Law Professor Stephen Bainbridge plans to sit out the election if Fred isn't an option. Bob Krumm is still planning on voting for Fred on Super Tuesday - as am I.
I'm certainly not passing judgment here, folks. I want to be clear on that. These men and women have been my conservative friends for years, and what happens between now and November doesn't change that. You see, I realize the anguish that these pragmatic conservatives are facing. They are political animals, and they don't have a candidate in the field that even comes close to representing their values. But they want to be involved - which is natural. So do I. They want to experience the camaraderie of working for the cause. After all, isn't that what being a member of a "party" is all about?
I admit - it's about to get really lonely over here at VOLuntarilyConservative. I realize that. I suspect that the day is coming soon where the GOP declares me the enemy. I will continue to support conservatives - the vast majority of whom will be Republican - both here in Tennessee and beyond. I'm not sure how that support will be received, though.
One point - I ask for people not to put the cart before the horse here. Fred's numbers are - get this - up in Florida, where he is one-point behind Huckabee and just out of the margin of error to Rudy Giuliani, who has been a Florida resident over the past several months. The Maritime Sentry pens a lovely plea to Fred Thompson to stay in the race. I join in that plea, as does An Angeleno's View of the World. So does Erik at RedState. Word out of Florida is that Fred's operation is still up and running while he tends to his sick mother back here in Tennessee. My understanding is that Fred has the funds to take him through February 5th. Stay in a bit longer, Fred. You're making up ground, and American conservatives need you now more than ever.
MORE: Via e-mail, it has been put to me as to whether or not I would support a ticket that had a true conservative - let's say Fred - as the VP nominee. That's a tough theoretical question.
If it's Fred, I probably would (especially on a McCain ticket, because McCain's health ain't exactly peachy). I'm not saying that I would for certain without knowing all of the parameters (Who is the conservative in question? Who is the nominee? Who is the opposition? Who are the third-party and independent candidates?), but I suppose that having Fred somewhere on the ticket is a heck of a lot better than not at all.
Does that make me a pragmatist? I hope not, but I guess that's for the rest of you to decide.
EVEN MORE: Bill Quick has the idea (Hat tip: Instapundit):
“You fight an election with the politicians you have.”
No, you fight an election over the principles you hold. When you are reduced to fighting an election with whatever politicians come to hand, you are admitting you - and your party - no longer have principles, and that you are merely engaged in a squabble for power at any cost.
Read the whole thing, including the comments, which are outstanding.
As we are on the verge of Fred either soldiering on to Super Tuesday (where he could pull a state or two from the ranks and hold out for a brokered convention, which, given a look on the map and depending greatly on the resolve of the particular candidates, is still a real possibility) or terminating his candidacy, the pragmatic conservatives are starting to spin this week's probable nominee as palatable to other conservatives. I'm not sure if they are trying to convince others, convince themselves, or toe the party line, but that's probably something that only each of them individually can answer.
Some people aren't so moving. Pete Fanning won't be backing one of the pseudoconservatives come election day in Wisconsin. (Hat tip: Volunteer Voters.) UCLA Law Professor Stephen Bainbridge plans to sit out the election if Fred isn't an option. Bob Krumm is still planning on voting for Fred on Super Tuesday - as am I.
I'm certainly not passing judgment here, folks. I want to be clear on that. These men and women have been my conservative friends for years, and what happens between now and November doesn't change that. You see, I realize the anguish that these pragmatic conservatives are facing. They are political animals, and they don't have a candidate in the field that even comes close to representing their values. But they want to be involved - which is natural. So do I. They want to experience the camaraderie of working for the cause. After all, isn't that what being a member of a "party" is all about?
I admit - it's about to get really lonely over here at VOLuntarilyConservative. I realize that. I suspect that the day is coming soon where the GOP declares me the enemy. I will continue to support conservatives - the vast majority of whom will be Republican - both here in Tennessee and beyond. I'm not sure how that support will be received, though.
One point - I ask for people not to put the cart before the horse here. Fred's numbers are - get this - up in Florida, where he is one-point behind Huckabee and just out of the margin of error to Rudy Giuliani, who has been a Florida resident over the past several months. The Maritime Sentry pens a lovely plea to Fred Thompson to stay in the race. I join in that plea, as does An Angeleno's View of the World. So does Erik at RedState. Word out of Florida is that Fred's operation is still up and running while he tends to his sick mother back here in Tennessee. My understanding is that Fred has the funds to take him through February 5th. Stay in a bit longer, Fred. You're making up ground, and American conservatives need you now more than ever.
MORE: Via e-mail, it has been put to me as to whether or not I would support a ticket that had a true conservative - let's say Fred - as the VP nominee. That's a tough theoretical question.
If it's Fred, I probably would (especially on a McCain ticket, because McCain's health ain't exactly peachy). I'm not saying that I would for certain without knowing all of the parameters (Who is the conservative in question? Who is the nominee? Who is the opposition? Who are the third-party and independent candidates?), but I suppose that having Fred somewhere on the ticket is a heck of a lot better than not at all.
Does that make me a pragmatist? I hope not, but I guess that's for the rest of you to decide.
EVEN MORE: Bill Quick has the idea (Hat tip: Instapundit):
“You fight an election with the politicians you have.”
No, you fight an election over the principles you hold. When you are reduced to fighting an election with whatever politicians come to hand, you are admitting you - and your party - no longer have principles, and that you are merely engaged in a squabble for power at any cost.
Read the whole thing, including the comments, which are outstanding.
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary, Fred Thompson
A Pastor's View from Inside a Huckabee Rally
Pastor Bret McAtee recently attended a Mike Huckabee campaign rally in Michigan. He came away with his "worst fears realized" about the candidate and his fellow Christians who have gravitated to the former Arkansas governor:
"So here is the summary of the first observation. People, including Christians, so desperately want heroes that they will turn off rational thought once they decide, for whatever reason, that some person is going to be that hero. Secondly, the Christian community is no different from the non-Christian community when it comes to shallowness, practicing thought by emotion, and sheer unmitigated gullibility."
McAtee has a very interesting read, and his experiences are not isolated (as other Christians who don't support Huckabee can attest).
"So here is the summary of the first observation. People, including Christians, so desperately want heroes that they will turn off rational thought once they decide, for whatever reason, that some person is going to be that hero. Secondly, the Christian community is no different from the non-Christian community when it comes to shallowness, practicing thought by emotion, and sheer unmitigated gullibility."
McAtee has a very interesting read, and his experiences are not isolated (as other Christians who don't support Huckabee can attest).
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary
Friday, January 18, 2008
Buchanan: GOP is Growing Up, Not Dying
I recommend this column by Pat Buchanan on how the GOP is going through some growing pains, with reports of its death being greatly exaggerated. Of particular interest is Buchanan's view that the American electorate is repudiating Bushism, not Reaganism.
I believe Buchanan to be in error in lumping Fred Thompson in with establishment candidate Rudy Giuliani, but I agree with his overall thesis that these primaries are showing how out of touch the GOP establishment is with the grassroots.
I believe Buchanan to be in error in lumping Fred Thompson in with establishment candidate Rudy Giuliani, but I agree with his overall thesis that these primaries are showing how out of touch the GOP establishment is with the grassroots.
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary, Conservatism
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Romney Stayin' Alive in Michigan
Good for Mitt Romney in winning Michigan. He should have done so, as if he didn't win there, he wasn't going to win anywhere. Well, except for Utah.
I guess the margin was a bit surprising. Nine points shows that McCain is not the frontrunner that the mainstream media declared him to be after the 11 Republicans in New Hampshire had their say. Reports that I heard all day were from Michigan voters who didn't really care for Romney but voted for him to deny McCain the victory.
I will say this - I love Romney's strategy of concentrating on the Nevada caucuses instead of heading to South Carolina. All eyes in South Carolina will be on Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, and John McCain. I'm not convinced that all three will see Florida if they fail to win in South Carolina. So instead of fighting for the 24 delegates in the Palmetto State, Romney is concentrating on Nevada's 31 delegates.
Shrewd move, Romney campaign, and I suspect that it will pay off in the end. You wouldn't have been the center of attention in South Carolina, anyway, so go steal Nevada, which you almost certainly will win with a little time in the state (although much more than any other GOP candidate) and a significant Mormon population to boot.
Will McCain's disappointing performance in Michigan cut into his lead in South Carolina? I can't see how it won't, but the big question is whether Thompson can make up enough ground (as he's got positive momentum and statistically polling in second place) to pass McCain by Saturday.
MORE: David Oatney weighs in and thumbs his nose at the media.
EVEN MORE: Bob Krumm comments on how Mike Huckabee getting creamed in Michigan could be the opening that Fred Thompson needs in South Carolina.
I guess the margin was a bit surprising. Nine points shows that McCain is not the frontrunner that the mainstream media declared him to be after the 11 Republicans in New Hampshire had their say. Reports that I heard all day were from Michigan voters who didn't really care for Romney but voted for him to deny McCain the victory.
I will say this - I love Romney's strategy of concentrating on the Nevada caucuses instead of heading to South Carolina. All eyes in South Carolina will be on Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, and John McCain. I'm not convinced that all three will see Florida if they fail to win in South Carolina. So instead of fighting for the 24 delegates in the Palmetto State, Romney is concentrating on Nevada's 31 delegates.
Shrewd move, Romney campaign, and I suspect that it will pay off in the end. You wouldn't have been the center of attention in South Carolina, anyway, so go steal Nevada, which you almost certainly will win with a little time in the state (although much more than any other GOP candidate) and a significant Mormon population to boot.
Will McCain's disappointing performance in Michigan cut into his lead in South Carolina? I can't see how it won't, but the big question is whether Thompson can make up enough ground (as he's got positive momentum and statistically polling in second place) to pass McCain by Saturday.
MORE: David Oatney weighs in and thumbs his nose at the media.
EVEN MORE: Bob Krumm comments on how Mike Huckabee getting creamed in Michigan could be the opening that Fred Thompson needs in South Carolina.
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Fredmentum is Real in South Carolina
Before Fred Thompson got the good news that his candidacy had hit its goal of raising $1 million from the South Carolina debates to Monday night, he got some very encouraging results from Rasmussen's latest polling.
Fred has pulled within the margin of error of second place, with Fred, Huckabee, and Romney all within a few points of each other. Fred has shown the only gains between the last two polls, with most of his new found momentum coming at the expense of Mike Huckabee, who is down nearly as much as Fred is up.
Michigan's primary results later on today will certainly alter the look of the landscape in South Carolina (either McCain falls back to the pack or Romney is toast), but Fred has to like where he is now. (I know that I like it when I'm in South Carolina...)
MORE:
Volunteer Voters
John Rodgers
Jeff Woods
Blue Star Chronicles
Macsmind
Below the Beltway
Jason Pye
Instapundit
Fred has pulled within the margin of error of second place, with Fred, Huckabee, and Romney all within a few points of each other. Fred has shown the only gains between the last two polls, with most of his new found momentum coming at the expense of Mike Huckabee, who is down nearly as much as Fred is up.
Michigan's primary results later on today will certainly alter the look of the landscape in South Carolina (either McCain falls back to the pack or Romney is toast), but Fred has to like where he is now. (I know that I like it when I'm in South Carolina...)
MORE:
Volunteer Voters
John Rodgers
Jeff Woods
Blue Star Chronicles
Macsmind
Below the Beltway
Jason Pye
Instapundit
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary, Fred Thompson
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Don't Call It a Comeback - The South Carolina Debate
"This is a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party and its future. On the one hand you have the Reagan Revolution ... on the other hand you have the direction that Governor Huckabee would take us ... liberal economic policies, liberal foreign policies."
I'm not sure if I've witnessed such a clear-cut debate result since the Obama/Keyes debates of 2004.
As the Fox News focus group showed, Fred Thompson was the runaway winner of tonight's FoxNews GOP debate. If I had to rank all of the candidates, I would probably say:
1) Fred Thompson
2) Mike Huckabee
3) John McCain
4) Mitt Romney
5) Rudy Giuliani
6) Ron Paul
The only reason that I knocked McCain down from #2 to #3 was his horrid performance at the end of the debate where he bungled his answers on immigration reform. McCain still did more than Mike Huckabee, whom Fred Thompson labeled as the chairman of the "hate America first crowd."
I gave Huckabee second, mostly because I doubt that most voters would care to look at his record, leaving his lies about raising taxes and the like unchallenged. Giuliani is also good at openly lying about his record at debates, and tonight was no exception.
It's a bit of a shame that Duncan Hunter wasn't included. I heard Duncan Hunter speaking on Tom Sullivan's radio show this afternoon, and Hunter was quite impressive. Hunter's knowledge of military issues certainly would serve him well in an executive appointment, perhaps as a Secretary of Defense. He's certainly more of a conservative than Mike Huckabee - by far.
The big question is if Fred changed enough minds in the Palmetto State to spark the momentum he needs to win South Carolina next Saturday.
Labels: 2008 GOP Presidential Primary
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Speeches, Analysis After Clinton Wins New Hampshire
Since I critiqued the Republican speeches earlier tonight, it is only fair that I offer something on Clinton, Obama, and Edwards.
I'll let Professor Reynolds handle it, though. His analysis seems right on. However, I want to add that Edwards had the best spin of the night. After immediately stating that Obama had won Iowa and that Clinton had won New Hampshire, he decried,
"Two down, forty eight more to go!"
Yes, John, I know that you were trying to say that there are 48 more chances, taking an optimistic approach. However, to me (and to a few other political friends I spoke to nationally tonight), it sounded like you meant that there were 48 more losses, 48 more public beatings in your future.
Edwards went on to add that only 0.15% of the nation's population had voiced their preference for president. On this, I agree with Edwards. I'll write more in the next coming days, but consider me a convert to a national primary day approach for future presidential elections.
So where do we go from here now that New Hampshire is in the rearview?
- Mitt Romney has to win Michigan. Losses in Iowa and New Hampshire are not devastating, but defections amongst high profile supporters are inevitable given the large amounts of money and time that he put into those two states if he doesn't win Michigan, where his father was once governor. Check out Leon Wolf's analysis over at RedState for the views of a die-hard Romney supporter faced with his candidate's own political mortality.
- This win makes John McCain viable to Super Tuesday, but I encourage people not to get ahead of themselves as they did a few days ago when Mike Huckabee was all but assured of being the nominee because he convinced a few Iowa farmers that he was the most Christianity of the bunch. McCain needs to follow up with a solid performance in Michigan (which is possible), because he is unlikely to find much support in South Carolina, where his big draw is Senator Lindsey Graham, whose approval ratings in the Palmetto State are just slightly better than Hitler's and Genghis Khan's.
- If - and I said if - Romney wins Michigan by a decent margin with McCain second, South Carolina becomes an elimination match for Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee. Only one of those candidates is walking out of Carolina with their 2008 hopes intact. Pejman over at RedState sees the GOP establishment, which is greatly splintered today, perhaps solidifying behind a candidate before South Carolina instead of letting a McCain-Huckabee match-up materialize.
- Ron Paul - upon the "discovery" of his past newsletters - is done. I'm not talking about for the Republican nomination. He never had a chance at that. I'm talking about as a possible third-party candidate. Americans will not come out in numbers to vote for bigotry.
- I still worry about Rudy Giuliani. He seems to be the best positioned candidate to me at this point. Of course, he's not very smart, as he proved Tuesday morning on CNN. There he was, in the face of polling that showed him battling Ron Paul for 4th amongst the also-rans, telling the CNN reporter about how hard he had worked in New Hampshire, how it was a priority state for his campaign, and how much money that his campaign had spent in the Granite State. Nothing like raising expectations in the face of an impending loss.
- I'm not going to comment on Hillary Clinton's base demographic. Apparently, it's women (sorry, ladies, but the exit polling is pretty convincing on this one) who think that a fake-crying candidate best represents their interests.
- Edwards should probably quit, but what else does he have to do for the rest of 2008?
- Richardson will be quitting today, hoping that he made a good enough impression for the second seat on the Democratic ticket.
- The race for the Democratic nomination will go on past Super Tuesday. And it could get bloody.
Labels: 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary, 2008 GOP Presidential Primary
