VOLuntarilyConservative

Since I critiqued the Republican speeches earlier tonight, it is only fair that I offer something on Clinton, Obama, and Edwards.

I'll let Professor Reynolds handle it, though. His analysis seems right on. However, I want to add that Edwards had the best spin of the night. After immediately stating that Obama had won Iowa and that Clinton had won New Hampshire, he decried,

"Two down, forty eight more to go!"

Yes, John, I know that you were trying to say that there are 48 more chances, taking an optimistic approach. However, to me (and to a few other political friends I spoke to nationally tonight), it sounded like you meant that there were 48 more losses, 48 more public beatings in your future.

Edwards went on to add that only 0.15% of the nation's population had voiced their preference for president. On this, I agree with Edwards. I'll write more in the next coming days, but consider me a convert to a national primary day approach for future presidential elections.

So where do we go from here now that New Hampshire is in the rearview?

• Mitt Romney has to win Michigan. Losses in Iowa and New Hampshire are not devastating, but defections amongst high profile supporters are inevitable given the large amounts of money and time that he put into those two states if he doesn't win Michigan, where his father was once governor. Check out Leon Wolf's analysis over at RedState for the views of a die-hard Romney supporter faced with his candidate's own political mortality.
• This win makes John McCain viable to Super Tuesday, but I encourage people not to get ahead of themselves as they did a few days ago when Mike Huckabee was all but assured of being the nominee because he convinced a few Iowa farmers that he was the most Christianity of the bunch. McCain needs to follow up with a solid performance in Michigan (which is possible), because he is unlikely to find much support in South Carolina, where his big draw is Senator Lindsey Graham, whose approval ratings in the Palmetto State are just slightly better than Hitler's and Genghis Khan's.
• If - and I said if - Romney wins Michigan by a decent margin with McCain second, South Carolina becomes an elimination match for Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee. Only one of those candidates is walking out of Carolina with their 2008 hopes intact. Pejman over at RedState sees the GOP establishment, which is greatly splintered today, perhaps solidifying behind a candidate before South Carolina instead of letting a McCain-Huckabee match-up materialize.
• Ron Paul - upon the "discovery" of his past newsletters - is done. I'm not talking about for the Republican nomination. He never had a chance at that. I'm talking about as a possible third-party candidate. Americans will not come out in numbers to vote for bigotry.
• I still worry about Rudy Giuliani. He seems to be the best positioned candidate to me at this point. Of course, he's not very smart, as he proved Tuesday morning on CNN. There he was, in the face of polling that showed him battling Ron Paul for 4th amongst the also-rans, telling the CNN reporter about how hard he had worked in New Hampshire, how it was a priority state for his campaign, and how much money that his campaign had spent in the Granite State. Nothing like raising expectations in the face of an impending loss.
• I'm not going to comment on Hillary Clinton's base demographic. Apparently, it's women (sorry, ladies, but the exit polling is pretty convincing on this one) who think that a fake-crying candidate best represents their interests.
• Edwards should probably quit, but what else does he have to do for the rest of 2008?
• Richardson will be quitting today, hoping that he made a good enough impression for the second seat on the Democratic ticket.
• The race for the Democratic nomination will go on past Super Tuesday. And it could get bloody.

Labels: 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary, 2008 GOP Presidential Primary