Wednesday, August 16, 2006
New Polling Good News for Santorum, Burns
As I stated here not long ago (and was ridiculed on other sites for my analysis), I believe the loss of GOP seats in the Senate is overblown.
New polling data shows that my patient approach versus the panic others have exhibited may have been the prudent choice.
A Quinnipiac poll released late Tuesday shows Rick Santorum trailing by a mere 6 points (putting him within the margin of error) to Bob Casey, Jr. Santorum has closed the deficit by fourteen points in a matter of weeks, he has a substantial advantage in funding, and a Green Party candidate qualifying for the ballot, which could pull a few points off of Casey's total in the end. Santorum' momentum has been remarkable, and it seems to be growing in Pennsylvania.
Another poll (this one from Rasmussen) shows Montana Senator Conrad Burns even with Democrat Jon Tester. Perhaps the good people of Montana are starting to realize how out of his depth Mr. Tester is. In any case, Burns has erased all of the 7 points he was down only a few weeks ago. As with Santorum, positive momentum by an incumbent with only weeks to go before Election Day spells trouble for the challengers...
Now the GOP needs to pay attention to key House races, too. I am not as optimistic about the GOP's chances of retaining that body. I see a few losses in the South, but the Northeast could get ugly for Republican incumbents. Given the House's power on spending bills, we need to keep that in the fold, as well.
New polling data shows that my patient approach versus the panic others have exhibited may have been the prudent choice.
A Quinnipiac poll released late Tuesday shows Rick Santorum trailing by a mere 6 points (putting him within the margin of error) to Bob Casey, Jr. Santorum has closed the deficit by fourteen points in a matter of weeks, he has a substantial advantage in funding, and a Green Party candidate qualifying for the ballot, which could pull a few points off of Casey's total in the end. Santorum' momentum has been remarkable, and it seems to be growing in Pennsylvania.
Another poll (this one from Rasmussen) shows Montana Senator Conrad Burns even with Democrat Jon Tester. Perhaps the good people of Montana are starting to realize how out of his depth Mr. Tester is. In any case, Burns has erased all of the 7 points he was down only a few weeks ago. As with Santorum, positive momentum by an incumbent with only weeks to go before Election Day spells trouble for the challengers...
Now the GOP needs to pay attention to key House races, too. I am not as optimistic about the GOP's chances of retaining that body. I see a few losses in the South, but the Northeast could get ugly for Republican incumbents. Given the House's power on spending bills, we need to keep that in the fold, as well.
Permalink posted by Rob Huddleston @ 7:33 AM 
