VOLuntarilyConservative

Here are the latest poll numbers for various U.S. Senate races across the country:

Democratic Seats

Florida
(D) Bill Nelson - 51.5%
(R) Katherine Harris - 33.6%
MOE: +/-3.5%

New Mexico
(D) Jeff Bingaman - 53.9%
(R) Allen McCulloch - 31.5%
MOE: +/-4.3%

Washington
(D) Maria Cantwell - 49.4%
(R) Mike McGavick - 41.7%
MOE: +/-3.2%

Michigan
(D) Debbie Stabenow - 48.0%
(R) Michael Bouchard - 41.8%
MOE: +/-3.4%

Minnesota
(D) Amy Klobuchar - 49.4%
(R) Mark Kennedy - 42.9%
MOE: +/- 4.2%

Maryland
(D) Kweisi Mfume - 44.0%
(R) Michael Steele - 45.0%
MOE: +/-4.1%

New Jersey
(D) Bob Menendez - 44.8%
(R) Tom Kean, Jr. - 39.0%
MOE: +/-3.9%

Republican Seats

Ohio
(R) Mike DeWine - 36.6%
(D) Sherrod Brown - 45.2%
MOE: +/-3.2%

Missouri
(R) Jim Talent - 49.0%
(D) Claire McCaskill - 45.2%
MOE: +/-3.5%

Arizona
(R) Jon Kyl - 50.2%
(D) Jim Pederson - 42.4%
MOE: +/-4.1%

Pennsylvania
(R) Rick Santorum - 39.0%
(D) Bob Casey - 45.0%
MOE: +/-4.0%

Tennessee
(R) Bob Corker - 42.5%
(D) Harold Ford, Jr. - 43.6%
MOE: +/-3.8%

Montana
(R) Conrad Burns - 43.0%
(D) Jon Tester - 50.0%
MOE: +/-4.0%

Virginia
(R) George Allen - 48.0%
(D) Jim Webb - 32.0%
MOE: +/-4.0%

Analysis

Much of the talk of the Democrats taking back the U.S. Senate seems greatly overblown. First, so many of these races are within the margin of error, and with three months until Election Day, it seems awfully premature to see this "perfect storm" playing out. Second, it's hard to see the Democrats holding all of their seats, much less winning six currently held by Republicans. While the Democrats may win three of their targeted seats (Montana, Tennessee, Ohio), they certainly may lose three, as well (Michigan, Maryland, New Jersey). The only have to lose one of their own to see their dreams of majority status destroyed.

Someone may comment about Santorum. Folks, I think Rick is going to be just fine. His fundraising efforts have been beyond exceptional, and he has closed the gap in each poll since the campaign began in earnest. He can outspend his opponent, as can Michael Steele in Maryland, and that might be enough for both of those seats - which looked to be heading to the Democratic side - to appear a beautiful shade of red in November.