Monday, August 07, 2006


Latest WSJ/Rasmussen/Mason Dixon Poll Numbers

Here are the latest poll numbers for various U.S. Senate races across the country:

Democratic Seats

(D) Bill Nelson - 51.5%
(R) Katherine Harris - 33.6%
MOE: +/-3.5%

New Mexico
(D) Jeff Bingaman - 53.9%
(R) Allen McCulloch - 31.5%
MOE: +/-4.3%

(D) Maria Cantwell - 49.4%
(R) Mike McGavick - 41.7%
MOE: +/-3.2%

(D) Debbie Stabenow - 48.0%
(R) Michael Bouchard - 41.8%
MOE: +/-3.4%

(D) Amy Klobuchar - 49.4%
(R) Mark Kennedy - 42.9%
MOE: +/- 4.2%

(D) Kweisi Mfume - 44.0%
(R) Michael Steele - 45.0%
MOE: +/-4.1%

New Jersey
(D) Bob Menendez - 44.8%
(R) Tom Kean, Jr. - 39.0%
MOE: +/-3.9%

Republican Seats

(R) Mike DeWine - 36.6%
(D) Sherrod Brown - 45.2%
MOE: +/-3.2%

(R) Jim Talent - 49.0%
(D) Claire McCaskill - 45.2%
MOE: +/-3.5%

(R) Jon Kyl - 50.2%
(D) Jim Pederson - 42.4%
MOE: +/-4.1%

(R) Rick Santorum - 39.0%
(D) Bob Casey - 45.0%
MOE: +/-4.0%

(R) Bob Corker - 42.5%
(D) Harold Ford, Jr. - 43.6%
MOE: +/-3.8%

(R) Conrad Burns - 43.0%
(D) Jon Tester - 50.0%
MOE: +/-4.0%

(R) George Allen - 48.0%
(D) Jim Webb - 32.0%
MOE: +/-4.0%


Much of the talk of the Democrats taking back the U.S. Senate seems greatly overblown. First, so many of these races are within the margin of error, and with three months until Election Day, it seems awfully premature to see this "perfect storm" playing out. Second, it's hard to see the Democrats holding all of their seats, much less winning six currently held by Republicans. While the Democrats may win three of their targeted seats (Montana, Tennessee, Ohio), they certainly may lose three, as well (Michigan, Maryland, New Jersey). The only have to lose one of their own to see their dreams of majority status destroyed.

Someone may comment about Santorum. Folks, I think Rick is going to be just fine. His fundraising efforts have been beyond exceptional, and he has closed the gap in each poll since the campaign began in earnest. He can outspend his opponent, as can Michael Steele in Maryland, and that might be enough for both of those seats - which looked to be heading to the Democratic side - to appear a beautiful shade of red in November.

The war in Iraq is going well, too! And there's nothing wrong with an unchecked executive... hell, the majority of the country is against abortion, too... right?
JP -

1) Not bad right now.
2) Of course there is, but no where does the media hold that check.
3) Yep.


I want that whole state of Pennsylvania to be a shade of red in 08. It cold happen.

While I seriously believe Bob Corker understands the seriousness of winning UET by 15% as the poll close across the Cumberland Valley, I don't think Todd Womack and others close to Bob fell that way.

I offered to help Bob bridge the gap with the Ed and Van people. They were willing to have me volunteer; however, I have a career to get back to and two beautiful girls to feed. I'd hold off getting a real job until after the election but got told by Todd, "Thanks but . . . ".

Heaven's knows if I could pull enough votes, I'd have won the 1st District; however, I don't think Rep. Davis will be knocking on doors for Bob, do you?

Nobody understands we mediators. ;-)

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