Tuesday, November 04, 2008


2008 Election Predictions

After a few phone calls, here's where I think we stand at the end of the night:

President of the United States

Obama - 286 electoral votes
McCain - 252 electoral votes

I see the numbers that many of my conservative brethren (like Vance Cheek) are pointing to, but I just don't see McCain carrying Virginia and Colorado. Those states hold the keys to the White House, and I see Obama riding the coattails of strong Senate candidates in both states to the win.

United States Senate

Democrats - 55
Republicans - 43
Independents - 2

As of today, I am predicting that the Republican firewall in the Senate will hold. I also would not be surprised if one of the two unaffiliated Members - Senator Joe Lieberman - starts caucusing with the Republicans instead of the Democrats, who have demonized him. With 44 Republican votes in the Senate, President Obama would have to work with the GOP regarding his agenda to socialize the country. As noted above, he will not have a Reagan-sized mandate to work with, so this will be for the good of the country.

United States House

Way too complicated to tell right now. The Democrats are going to gain several seats, but they will lose some, too (as with serial adulterer Tim Mahoney getting his clock cleaned by Tom Rooney).

Tennessee Senate

Republicans - 19
Democrats - 14

Yes, I am predicting a clean sweep for the Republicans here, based on my visits to the districts and internal polling to which I have been made privy. I would love to predict 19-13-1, but I just have no faith in write-in campaigns. What will be real interesting is seeing if the Republican-led Senate decides to seat Tim Barnes since he shouldn't have been on today's ballot.

Tennessee House

Again, this is too close and too complicated to call right now. I see the Republicans picking up a few seats. But the big question is - will it be enough to take the Speaker's gavel away from socialist/anti-gunner Jimmy Naifeh? (If there was any justice, Rory Bricco would beat Naifeh today and be done with the "Boss Hogg" question forever...)

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