Tuesday, June 03, 2008


Is David Davis Safe in the 1st District?

As y'all know, David Oatney and I are friends. Get us at a Lincoln Day Dinner together and we'll close the place down talkin' shop. So many people have been held hostage due to our long-winded conservative political analysis, including both of our wives, Rep. Stacey Campfield, Bill Jenkins, GOP Chairman Robin Smith, and Terry Frank, just to name a few.

However, when it comes down to the 1st District race this time around, David and I are not on the same team. No hard feelings, of course, but we are riding different horses in this rodeo.

David posted over at The Davy Crockett Newsstand about the 1st District race. I agree with David that no Democrat has a chance of winning the general election there anytime in the near future. However, I'm not so quick to dismiss Dr. Phil Roe, who is challenging Congressman David Davis in the Republican Primary.

Roe was impressive in 2006, and there's no telling how much damage was done by the rumors at the time (which, I have been told by multiple sources, were started by David Davis' campaign) that Dr. Roe - a former OB who has delivered thousands of babies - was pro-abortion. I know that other candidates from 2006 were offended at the rumor tactic against Dr. Roe, and while there's no telling if Davis authorized the tactic, it appeared to many that it came from his campaign staff.

David Oatney is confident in his man, and experience tells us pundits that it's a safe bet that the incumbent will win. However, my sources have told me that Roe has been an effective fundraiser, having brought in six-figures on one night early on in the campaign. Plus, Roe has excellent campaign staff, such as veteran political players Danny Price and Bill Snodgrass (Bill Jenkins' former Chief of Staff).

I do have two small issues with Oatney's post. First, I agree with Angelia about Davis' lack of exposure this election cycle. He was nowhere to be seen - nor did he have a surrogate - at several of the early Lincoln Day Dinners in the 1st District. Second, I think the dogfighting vote acknowledged by Oatney - the vote where Davis appeared to take the untenable position of being pro-dogfighting - could be bigger than the other votes that Davis has cast in the last two years. In the wake of Michael Vick, public sentiment was on the side of those who wanted to come out stronger against interstate dogfighting. To be the only Tennessean voting against the dogfighting bill could be portrayed as being out-of-touch with Tennessee voters.

Only time will tell if this becomes the race I think it could. However, Davis should not rest on his laurels, because 78% of Republican voters in 2006 didn't pick him in the primary.

Labels: ,

Note that I do not believe-even in thinking Davis will win- that he can sit on his laurels.

The thing is, I don't think he has been. All of these little appearances he is making to award grants to this group or cut the ribbon at the opening of such-and-such (like the VA hospital in Morristown) might as well be a campaign stop in this election year.
Post a Comment

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?