Sunday, January 21, 2007
Prediction Time
After going a perfect 4-for-4 last week, I am eager to make this week's predictions. I've picked the last 6 games correctly, which is better than any of the doofs on ESPN who actually get paid for their misinformation.
In the AFC Championship, everyone seems to like the Colts, which very well may spell doom for Manning's team. They have played well this year while the underdogs. Now that they are the favorites, I am having concerns.
In this game, it comes down to one thing for me (as it has the past two weeks) - can the Colts run defense stop the Patriots ground attack? I am of the opinion, especially after the past two weeks, that they can. Corey Dillon looks like he's running in a pit full of molasses, and Lawrence Maroney has been a bit banged up over the past few months. Kevin Faulk, the third down back, scares me more than those two right now, but I have faith in the Colts in this game. Plus, the big stat of this game - the Colts are undefeated at home in the RCA Dome this year. It's one of the loudest places to play in the NFL, and as long as the refs don't allow for the traditional mugging of the Colts receivers by the Pats corners, I think Peyton finally reaches the promised land.
Colts over the Patriots.
Now to the big game...
First of all, I have tuned into weather.com more this week than I ever have in a seven day period. The weather could have a huge effect on this game, as no team that plays in a dome has ever gone on the road to an outdoor stadium for a NFC or AFC Championship Game and won. Those teams are 0-8 lifetime. My good friend Ryan, who is originally from Louisiana and a Saints fan, called me Saturday and said that he, too, has been watching the weather reports all week. So what's the latest from weather.com as of 5:09 A.M. on the morning of the game?
...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST /4 AM EST/ TO 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ SUNDAY...
SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE PONTIAC... PERU...AND DIXON AREAS AROUND 3AM. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST... REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH A FEW AREAS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST STEADY SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD FROM AROUND SUNRISE TO MIDDAY. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Yep, there's a 60% chance of snow during the game, with temperatures not reaching freezing all day. One has to wonder if the cold won't hurt the play of Drew Brees (who played in San Diego before heading to New Orleans), Deuce McAllister (from Ole Miss), and Reggie Bush (a Southern Cal kid).
The Bears weakside run defense is a concern, as McAllister loves to run to the weakside and Hunter Hillenmeyer has had trouble lately filling the gap on that side. Hillenmeyer, an outstanding Vanderbilt product that the dumb Cheeseheads let go for nothing, has had a good season, but he needs to take on the fullback in order to allow backside pursuit to tackle the bruising McAllister. I think that's the key to the game, because if New Orleans can't run the ball, then our front four can get after Drew Brees in bad weather.
As for when the Bears have the ball, I would look for a steady diet of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. The Bears have a great interior line anchored by perennial Pro-Bowl center Olin Kreutz, and poor weather will suit the Bears gameplan fine as they look to pound the rock inside. If the game does come down to Rex's ability to put the ball in the air, I think Chicago is still OK as long as the protection holds up. The Saints have an excellent front four and could terrorize Rex in third-and-long situations, so it is important for the Bears to earn positive yardage on first and second downs.
The ESPN pundits (who have all picked the Saints to win) downplay homefield advantage, and with the weather conditions I believe them to be wrong in doing so. Soldier Field is a tough place to play, and dome teams have traditionally been worse on the road in the playoffs than the average (ask the Colts about trips to Foxboro). Brian Urlacher (whose jersey I will be sporting today) believes that the Soldier Field crowd will be the difference:
"Playing at home, our fans are loud. They’re excited right now, just like we are, so I think that’s going to be the biggest difference in the game.”
Homefield is huge here, and I think it means the difference in a nailbiter.
Bears over the Saints.
Enjoy the games!
In the AFC Championship, everyone seems to like the Colts, which very well may spell doom for Manning's team. They have played well this year while the underdogs. Now that they are the favorites, I am having concerns.
In this game, it comes down to one thing for me (as it has the past two weeks) - can the Colts run defense stop the Patriots ground attack? I am of the opinion, especially after the past two weeks, that they can. Corey Dillon looks like he's running in a pit full of molasses, and Lawrence Maroney has been a bit banged up over the past few months. Kevin Faulk, the third down back, scares me more than those two right now, but I have faith in the Colts in this game. Plus, the big stat of this game - the Colts are undefeated at home in the RCA Dome this year. It's one of the loudest places to play in the NFL, and as long as the refs don't allow for the traditional mugging of the Colts receivers by the Pats corners, I think Peyton finally reaches the promised land.
Colts over the Patriots.
Now to the big game...
First of all, I have tuned into weather.com more this week than I ever have in a seven day period. The weather could have a huge effect on this game, as no team that plays in a dome has ever gone on the road to an outdoor stadium for a NFC or AFC Championship Game and won. Those teams are 0-8 lifetime. My good friend Ryan, who is originally from Louisiana and a Saints fan, called me Saturday and said that he, too, has been watching the weather reports all week. So what's the latest from weather.com as of 5:09 A.M. on the morning of the game?
...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST /4 AM EST/ TO 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ SUNDAY...
SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE PONTIAC... PERU...AND DIXON AREAS AROUND 3AM. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST... REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH A FEW AREAS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST STEADY SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD FROM AROUND SUNRISE TO MIDDAY. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Yep, there's a 60% chance of snow during the game, with temperatures not reaching freezing all day. One has to wonder if the cold won't hurt the play of Drew Brees (who played in San Diego before heading to New Orleans), Deuce McAllister (from Ole Miss), and Reggie Bush (a Southern Cal kid).
The Bears weakside run defense is a concern, as McAllister loves to run to the weakside and Hunter Hillenmeyer has had trouble lately filling the gap on that side. Hillenmeyer, an outstanding Vanderbilt product that the dumb Cheeseheads let go for nothing, has had a good season, but he needs to take on the fullback in order to allow backside pursuit to tackle the bruising McAllister. I think that's the key to the game, because if New Orleans can't run the ball, then our front four can get after Drew Brees in bad weather.
As for when the Bears have the ball, I would look for a steady diet of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. The Bears have a great interior line anchored by perennial Pro-Bowl center Olin Kreutz, and poor weather will suit the Bears gameplan fine as they look to pound the rock inside. If the game does come down to Rex's ability to put the ball in the air, I think Chicago is still OK as long as the protection holds up. The Saints have an excellent front four and could terrorize Rex in third-and-long situations, so it is important for the Bears to earn positive yardage on first and second downs.
The ESPN pundits (who have all picked the Saints to win) downplay homefield advantage, and with the weather conditions I believe them to be wrong in doing so. Soldier Field is a tough place to play, and dome teams have traditionally been worse on the road in the playoffs than the average (ask the Colts about trips to Foxboro). Brian Urlacher (whose jersey I will be sporting today) believes that the Soldier Field crowd will be the difference:
"Playing at home, our fans are loud. They’re excited right now, just like we are, so I think that’s going to be the biggest difference in the game.”
Homefield is huge here, and I think it means the difference in a nailbiter.
Bears over the Saints.
Enjoy the games!
Labels: Football
Permalink posted by Rob Huddleston @ 5:00 AM 
