Tuesday, October 24, 2006
Another poll has Corker out in front
The latest Mason Dixon poll has Bob Corker leading Harold Ford, Jr. by 2 points, 45% to 43%. The margin of error is +/- 4 points.
Those who work in the business will know this is good news for Bob Corker. Mason-Dixon tends to underestimate GOP GOTV programs, which usually results in an error of 1.5-3.5 points off of where the GOP nominee is really polling. For Corker to be out in front without that correction is good news for his candidacy.
In addition, this poll was taken prior to what has been dubbed the Memphis Meltdown, where Ford shaved a few points off of his own total with a bizarre stunt that has many political wonks scratching their heads. Professor Gant over at UT told the Commercial Appeal that he believed that Ford probably "took a hit" over the stunt, and that the next round of polling should reflect that self-inflicted wound. I agree.
This race has turned, folks. Bob Corker is going to be the next United States Senator from Tennessee.
And with victories in Virginia by Senator George Allen and Missouri by Senator Jim Talent, the Republicans will hold on to control of the Senate. (Don't be surprised if New Jersey goes "red", too, although I am beginning to lose faith in our good friend Senator Santorum pulling out Pennsylvania and Senator Conrad Burns being victorious over his unqualified opponent in Montana.)
As for the House, I went over each race that is in the "danger" category for the Republicans. I am predicting that the GOP will retain the House - by one seat. If that isn't close, I don't know what is.
Despite what the no-nothings at CNN may be espousing, the tide has turned, and it appears to be a shade of red.
Those who work in the business will know this is good news for Bob Corker. Mason-Dixon tends to underestimate GOP GOTV programs, which usually results in an error of 1.5-3.5 points off of where the GOP nominee is really polling. For Corker to be out in front without that correction is good news for his candidacy.
In addition, this poll was taken prior to what has been dubbed the Memphis Meltdown, where Ford shaved a few points off of his own total with a bizarre stunt that has many political wonks scratching their heads. Professor Gant over at UT told the Commercial Appeal that he believed that Ford probably "took a hit" over the stunt, and that the next round of polling should reflect that self-inflicted wound. I agree.
This race has turned, folks. Bob Corker is going to be the next United States Senator from Tennessee.
And with victories in Virginia by Senator George Allen and Missouri by Senator Jim Talent, the Republicans will hold on to control of the Senate. (Don't be surprised if New Jersey goes "red", too, although I am beginning to lose faith in our good friend Senator Santorum pulling out Pennsylvania and Senator Conrad Burns being victorious over his unqualified opponent in Montana.)
As for the House, I went over each race that is in the "danger" category for the Republicans. I am predicting that the GOP will retain the House - by one seat. If that isn't close, I don't know what is.
Despite what the no-nothings at CNN may be espousing, the tide has turned, and it appears to be a shade of red.
Permalink posted by Rob Huddleston @ 2:34 AM 
