Monday, June 26, 2006


National Political Commentary

Pennsylvania - In my opinion, Pennsylvania may be the place to be come Election Day in November. Not only do you have an incumbent Senator in severe trouble, but you also have one heck of a gubernatorial race brewing. When I last reported on this race, Rasmussen had liberal despot Ed Rendell leading by 18 points over Republican Lynn Swann.

Things have tightened up considerably, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/Zogby Battleground poll. Rendell now only leads by 4.3% - well within the poll's +/- 3.6% margin of error.

Also showing increased signs of life is the candidacy of Senator Rick Santorum, who was trailing by 23 points in Rasmussen's estimation not even one month ago. WSJ/Zogby has Santorum trailing by a mere 6.6% at this juncture - again within the poll's +/- 3.6% margin of error.

This has to be heartbreaking to the Democratic Party. In every one of their dream scenarios for this November, they have already chocked Pennsylvania into the "blue state" category. Pennsylvania doesn't look like nearly the sure thing that the liberals thought it was only a short time ago.

Montana - I was able to catch the Senate debate Sunday between Republican incumbent Conrad Burns and Democratic challenger Jon Tester. You can read a local media report here from the Billings Gazette, although I didn't see the debate as quite the spirited affair depicted in the story.

I'll be frank - I don't see how the Democrats are going to pick up this seat. Yes, Conrad Burns is entangled with some of Jack Abramoff's tainted contributions, but so is Van Hilleary, and some people are still supporting him here in Tennessee. Besides his fundraising tactics, Burns isn't that bad of a guy.

And then you have Mr. Tester. Honestly, when looking at the two, my first thought when seeing Burns is "senator." My first thought when seeing Mr. Tester is "middle school JV football coach." That's nothing against middle school JV football coaches, but I would rather have a senator representing me in Washington and not someone who is obviously out of his depth, just as I would not want Burns coaching my football team.

All of the media-types have already acted as if they are about to declare both Pennsylvania and Montana as going to the Democrats, even with 0% of the polls reporting. Perhaps they should wait until the people have judged these candidates and their campaigns before acting so prematurely.

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